Invest 90L / Hurricane Don

[John_A]

Heads up Houston folks. We have a blow moving into the Gulf today. {Wednesday}

Should be on or close to land by Friday.

4 out of 6 tracking lines currently have it hitting Houston.....

[kenw]

best place to follow it:
Caribbean system nears tropical storm strength, now aimed toward Texas coast | SciGuy | a Chron.com blog

[r0xikat]

that's the link i was reading...

hello, fellow weather nerds :)


or are we so desperate for rain now that we're all aspiring meteorologists

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by John_A

Heads up Houston folks. We have a blow moving into the Gulf today. {Wednesday}

Should be on or close to land by Friday.

4 out of 6 tracking lines currently have it hitting Houston.....

What Category hurricane do they predict when it makes landfall?

[tomdrink]

Let's hope South (or any parts of) Texas gets some good soaking rains!
TomD

[venchka]

Originally Posted by Sonny

What Category hurricane do they predict when it makes landfall?

Way too premature. It's still just a loose glob of rain.

Quote from Ken's link above:

Caribbean system nears tropical storm strength, now aimed toward Texas coast
The tropical disturbance we’ve been tracking continues to develop, and likely will become Tropical Storm Don. The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical wave an 80 percent chance of blossoming into a tropical depression or storm during the next two days.
Look for it to be upgraded this afternoon when an aircraft reconnaissance plane investigates the disturbance.

In the large satellite image below the disturbance can be seen moving between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba this morning.

[jfoureyes]

Some rain would be great but 85 mph wind and power outage....very very bad for me.

[divenut1]

The nws national hurricane center is giving it a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone I'm the next 48 hours. At which time it will just be a named storm but not a hurricane.

I get alerts from the hurricane watch net everytime the nws issues a forecast or update.

So it is still way early to tell what is going to happen.

[auddii]

Hm, I should check the weather more. I'll be taking care of 5 cats and two dogs. Hoping there is no power outages...

[r0xikat]

Updated models:


I wouldn't expect anything higher than a Cat 2 even if rapid intensification happens. the Gulf is warm as it should be but not extremely so because of La Nina (whose effects are lingering but expected to strengthen again in the fall - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion). this is just my amateur knowledge heavily hypothesizing here... *hamster wheel squeak*

it will develop and dump rain, just a matter of 'where' now.

[KenJulio]

Looks like it's projected to land south of Houston near corpus or rockport. We'll get rain as it's a50% chance of rain on Friday and 20 on saturday

[venchka]

If it gets a name, your homeowner's insurance deductible goes up. Whooopie!

[ka5txl]

26 straight days of 100+ send it to Dallas, we will send the excess water back down the Trinty to you fine folks in houston

[KenJulio]

Rockport/Corpus landing is expected, we'll be on the dirty side to get some rain, with it moving at 10mph, it'll be a day's soaking

Invest 90 : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

[auddii]

I'm mad that NHC hasn't updated their website since 6:45 this morning. Hmph.