Invest 91L/TS 5 - TD/Hurricane Emily?

[r0xikat]

We are at the beginning of peak hurricane season, fellow weather nerds!

(I think my title is correct, yes?)

There's a small blip under the Yucatan (no chance of development), but Invest 91 your typical tropical wave off the western coast of Africa. Most models have it brushing up the Northern Antilles and ending up east of the Bahamas and Virgin Islands. One has it crashing into DR/Haiti. NHC has it at a 50% chance of developing into a significant storm. It has also been noted July was above average for #s of hurricanes; thankfully Bret and Cindy wandered back out into the Atlantic.

Let's see how this one grows...

[Atfulldraw]

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[Saltwater Servitude]

Not quite right on the title.

Should be:

INVEST 91L/TD 5 TS/Hurricane Emily

Tropical depressions are the precursors to tropical storms.

National Hurricane Center in Miami has her going full Cat 1 in the next 48-72 hours. Not much of anything out there to stop her from ramping up. If she goes west/southwest into the Caribbean and shoots the gap, we might have ourselves a nasty little hurricane to push some moisture into half of Texas.

Thread on HardCoreWeather.com:

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showt...741-INVEST-91L

[r0xikat]

oops. oh well, at least it was just switched around a bit

this one looks way more promising than Don, RIP.

[John_A]

Will be watching and contributing......

[The Philos]

RIPieces :D.

[Saltwater Servitude]

Oh well. The new spaghetti models have her tearing up the Windwards and then morphing into a fish spinner. Damn that high pressure system pushing her out into the Atlantic.

[John_A]

Rain please......

[r0xikat]

yep, looks like another one to take a right after brushing some islands with rain.

[r0xikat]

NHC update this morning:

1. THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[John_A]

Storm pulse's latest:

Showers and thunderstorms extend from the lesser antilles eastward for a few hundred miles in association with a vigorous tropical wave. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the disturbance, although satellite imagery indicates this system has not become any better organized since this morning. The wave is producing winds to near tropical storm force, and environmental conditions remain conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form later tonight or Tuesday. This system has a high chance, 80 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. If the system becomes a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow, tropical storm warnings would be issued for portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands on very short notice. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system will bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to portions of the lesser antilles tonight and Tuesday.

Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

[r0xikat]

hello, Emily!

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

more here: Tropical Storm EMILY Forecast Discussion

will make some impact on the states as well:

[John_A]

Yea I figured the islands yould tear it up. Just have to see. Looks like Florida is going to get some rain....

[Saltwater Servitude]

The latest runs have her pushing further and further west. It really depends on what this trough sliding down the east coast does. If it breaks over Florida the right way, it could steer Emily into the Gulf. Haiti/DR are probably getting nailed no matter what. If the trough flattens out on the leading edge, Emily will most like slide off into the Atlantic.

I'm kind curious to see what happens over the Yucatan over the next 24-72 hours.

[r0xikat]

Emily, though disorganized, is growing | SciGuy | a Chron.com blog

growing, but could go either way after hitting Haiti/DR, but still leaning towards a westward track as Jeff posted..