iPhone rant

[Sonny]

This guy brought up interesting issues about the iPhone. Guess I was in awe of the phone and totally overlooked the obvious. Thread can be found over at Howard forums.
http://howardforums.com/showthread.php?t=1132929

You guys have got to be kidding me. There is no way that the iPhone can succeed. I'm almost betting on it.

1) Consider what it lacks: expansion slot, removable battery, tactile buttons, no third-party applications, 3G radio, premium camera, carrier variety, A2DP.

Here's some breakdowns:

No expansion slot? Can't be used in conjunction with a good camera, can't used with other devices, has to have usb cable to transfer files, relies on expensive flash memory, and most of all, NO EXPANSION POSSIBLE.

While battery may not seem like a big deal, something that is so consuming as an iPhone will use up huge amounts of battery life. You have to support 3 radios, huge color screen, digitizer, and also the large flash memory. Avid handheld users will be fine with this, but for the average phone user, which uses a phone for probably a week to 3 days before they charge and don't carry a charger around, that is horrible. Not everyone is a road warrior. Add to this that once you have sucked the life out of the $600 device, you'll end up sending the phone back to Apple or AT&T for $100 to change the battery.

One of the killers for the younger crowd is the lack of tactile buttons. For texters that rely heavily on knowing the combinations with one or two hands and need to text without having to look at the screen (in class, in the car, etc), they will be at a lost as to how to accomplish this. Another aspect of this is that the screen is relatively small for typing anyways and without a stylus to do something like Grafiti or transcriber, you will need a rather large space to type, which is like using virtual grafiti on a Sony TG50.

No third-party? What does this mean? It means you get to use the phone as a phone and as a music player. Oh, and a web browser. . . (no buttons though). This means you can't use this for a smartphone, something that prosumers need. That means editting documents, corporate softwares, presenter software, GPS solutions, etc etc. This also means paying ****loads for games, no independent incentive to make apps to improve the iPhone, and very limited ability to expand outside of what Apple and the carriers want.

With the new wave of 3G coverage, it makes no sense that the first iPhones would not include 3G. That's $600 for no 3G? Heck no.

2MP camera? That's a low end phone nowadays. Considering what the N95 has, what dozens of other 3MP phones have, that's horrible. No flash, no good.

How many years before you can get an iPhone on anything but Cingular? Yeah. I'm sure flocks will just go for the new AT&T for the iPhone.

I consider A2DP a must for anyone no A2DP also means no 2.0, which means S L O W.

2) Consider what comes with it: 2 year contract.

Now, you may say big deal, but 2 years with Cingular is actually expensive. Perhaps not in terms of voice, but think about the data portion. Because the iPhone is made for data, you are going to have to get a data plan. That means 24 months X $30. That's an extra $720 to a voice plan that is already 24 X $70. That means that it's $2400 over 2 years for one phone. Moreover, the coverage is still sparse such that first time data users are going to be frustrated with the slow GPRS to EDGE speeds.

3) Consider the deceptive statistics: Steve Jobs says 1% of 1 billion.

That's 1 billion worldwide. What makes people think that the 1 billion is anywhere near us? In a very competitive and mature market, Samsung has only managed to sell 100 million units since 1997. That's 10 in one year, all of which are NOT $600. Many of those (as is with the 1 billion sold worldwide) are free, especially in the US, where 67% of people get the cheapest or the free phone that comes with the plan. This excludes the phones sold on prepaid services. The 1 billion worldwide is also a stat that fanboys will bring up and saying that if Jobs catches 1% of the market then he will have the 10 million. I say that it is important to note that most of Apple's market is in the US.

Also, 3G is now a demand in 16% of consumers seeking new phones, which is a higher percentage in actuality when you consider that the 16% composes a great deal of the people who know enough specs and have enough disposable income to purchase this device.

Another thing to add is that 66% of cell phone users now play games their phones. It will be interesting how Apple will get games on since they don't allow third party software.

I'm not saying no one will buy it, but Jobs wants 10 million sold in less than 2 years.

Here's the sales chart for the iPod (bear with this comparison) from wiki.

2002 Q1 125,000[52]
2002 Q2 57,000[53]
2002 Q3 54,000[54]
2002 Q4 140,000[55]
2003 Q1 219,000[56]
2003 Q2 78,000[57]
2003 Q3 304,000[58]
2003 Q4 336,000[59]
2004 Q1 733,000[60]
2004 Q2 807,000[61]
2004 Q3 860,000[62]
2004 Q4 2,016,000[63]

It took Apple 3 years (12 fiscal quarters) to sell 10 million devices in an underdeveloped mp3 market at a lesser price.

Jobs forecast for 10 million means that with a June release, he has 6 quarters. That's half the time to sell the same number of units for twice the price. Still think so?

Yeah, people buy iPods because it's ALREADY A TREND. It was an early player in a young market that caught fire. During its release quarter, probably 10% or less of the US market had mp3 players. Probably more like 5%. How many people don't have cell phones? Anyone? Bueller? The iPod was seen as the only choice because nothing else had exposure.

4) Consider the price: $600

For $600, it better not be "not that bad."
In the past 4 years, Motorola has sold 75 million RAZR's. In that time, the price has gone from $400 to $50 to even free in some cases. Not so with the iPhone. Moreover, that's with both CDMA and GSM carriers all selling it. In this case, only Cingular offers it. To add to that, the RAZR was a marketing explosion that literally began the phone craze, bridging the market from big hunky tanks to a slim, hip device (figuratively, not literally). Seeing as how the phone market is already developed, that is not going to happen for the iPhone.

For about $700, the N95 will feature 5MP camera, symbian OS (third party apps available), GPS, WIFI, quadband, HSPDA, BT, slider buttons, an actual numberpad, and unlocked phones. And an expansion port.

Sure it puts everything in a device, but if you're an adult (non-geek), you will say (most of them anyways), "Gee, it does the same thing I already have: play music and let me call with my camera phone." The same reasoning will come into play when kids beg for it. "You already have a phone and an iPod. Go away."

While some may say that the $600 is not a big deal for the corporate crowd, they need buttons, push email, PIM sync and support where ease of entry and UI is vital, and their third-party apps, none of which are provided by the iPhone.

Profit margin of the iPhone has also been leaked to be over 50%. That means a truer price without subsidies should really only be $300. Sucks for us.

5) Consider the competition:

The iPhone is up against a slew of options. There's iPaqs, Blackberry's, and Treo's for the corporate market. The trendy phones now are flooded with WM Smartphone devices like the BlackJack, the Moto Q, and others. The RAZR, KRZR, and other such phones like D900, Katana, C30, and cheap phones dominate the market.

According to RCR Wireless, 835 new models of music phones are expected to launch this year. Additionally, 14 models have very similar features to the iPhone. A few options such as the LG model looks quite similar to the iPhone.

6) Consider the comparison below in terms of functionality and value:

People do buy something based on name. That's why you buy a Sony camera or a Canon camera instead of some inferior brand like Mustek. Sure. But that's when they need to buy something. Let's say you have a $1000 Dell laptop. Now, Alienware comes out with this nice new thing that has a 3 MP camera and Skype built in and a 1TB hard drive. However, it's 6 times the price of an average laptop: $6000. Buying it? Probably not. And this laptop is usually only going to be able to be connected via a $50/month plan for internet and a $60/month plan for Skype calling. Also to note, there are no keys. Sorry. And no USB port. Sorry. Oh, and no third-party apps. Sorry. O, and only if you use Cingular. Sorry.



If I left anything out, please feel free to remind me.

[brad]

Some of his info is out of date...

It will support 3G as part of their deal to go exclusive with AT&T.

They recently announced that they will have the ability to have 3rd party applications by the time it is released.

As for some of his other points.. they are opinions.. the tactile buttons? Part of the iPhone's attempt to be different is the interface.. No premium camera? Who really wants that anyway? (And I'm not talking to this crowd.. most people could care less, they've been happy with their crappy little camera phones with a pinhead sized sensor).

[srwatters]

Don't like it? Don't buy it.

I love the way these 'experts' analyze the market.

The battery question is not known and won't be until the 29th...
http://www.ipodbatteryfaq.com/

John Dvorak is a dweeb.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by brad

Some of his info is out of date...

It will support 3G as part of their deal to go exclusive with AT&T.

They recently announced that they will have the ability to have 3rd party applications by the time it is released.

As for some of his other points.. they are opinions.. the tactile buttons? Part of the iPhone's attempt to be different is the interface.. No premium camera? Who really wants that anyway? (And I'm not talking to this crowd.. most people could care less, they've been happy with their crappy little camera phones with a pinhead sized sensor).

guess I should of checked the date. oh well.

[josphy]

I have to agree on the one point about the tactile buttons. On the one hand that is very innovative. It can be anything based on the software -- it's not constrained by a particular layout of buttons or whatnot.

On the other hand, I know just by feel how to change my phone from silent mode to normal ring mode, and I do that all the time.

[zeroendless]

The lack of active sync with exchange/outlooks is a real bummer for a $600 phone. Business level users that depend on mobile email/calendar/tasks sync should think twice before falling for the hype.

My boss been brainwashed from a Mac lover about iphone, just switched to Cingular from Sprint so he can get the first iphone in town when it's avaliable..... but now he just learned that he will lose all the sync capability on exchange server/outlook he likes so much about mobile phone.

At least he didn't get the appleTV...LOL.

[dminton]

Do you HAVE to have a data plan with a Blackberry or TREO? Since the iPhone has WIFI built in, and as Steve Jobs demonstrated, all the data stuff can be done with the WIFI; checking the email, Safari, Google Maps etc. No need to ever access the EDGE network ever, unless you're in Roadrunner Toe Texas, about 60 miles outside of Lajitas.

You also have to look at it from the Apple point of view. Their main consumer base is people that alread use/have Apple stuff. They make things that will play well with everybody, but works best with their own equipment. It's stupid not to, and even stupider to criticize Apple for doing so. No expansion slot? No need, cause Mac people use bluetooth for everything anyway. Zip some files over from your MacBook to your iPhone with iSync and you'll be iFlying in no iTime.

This is a first run product. It's gonna be friggin expensive. Are people getting taken for a ride? Yeah, probably a little bit. It always happens. TVs, DVD players, cars, cameras, cell phones, and on and on. It's why people are holding out on Canon for almost a year, for when the MK III drops down to under $4000.

I dunno. I think it's a big hyped-up thing, that's really cool, that some folks are grumpy about just because they can be. It's just like the MAC vs PC thing, Chevy Vs Ford, and the Nikon vs Canon debate. Does it replace every single device you've ever bought? No. Does it do thing better? Mabye. It's all relative.

Everybody's gonna be eating their hat with envy when Scott gets his.

[akimartymar]

Originally Posted by brad

No premium camera? Who really wants that anyway? (And I'm not talking to this crowd.. most people could care less, they've been happy with their crappy little camera phones with a pinhead sized sensor).

Exactly my thoughts. If you want a nice camera, you buy a camera, not a phone. How many people really try printing anything that was taken with a cell phone camera? Most of those pics just get posted on someone's Myspace page or whatever.

[tjavery]

Consider what it lacks: expansion slot, removable battery, tactile buttons, no third-party applications, 3G radio, premium camera, carrier variety, A2DP....

...2MP camera? That's a low end phone nowadays. Considering what the N95 has, what dozens of other 3MP phones have, that's horrible. No flash, no good...

HA! Heheheh Oh that's a good laugh. Thanks for cheering up my morning

"premium" camera! Ha!

Hey dufus: IT'S A CELL PHONE!

[Detonate]

Originally Posted by brad

It will support 3G as part of their deal to go exclusive with AT&T.

Where did you read this?

I don't keep up with the iPhone, as it hold no interest to me. But I do read the articles from time to time.

Everything I've read says it's 2G, with a possible 3G iPhone in 2008.

[AlexMorse]

I went way the heck out of my way to buy a phone WITHOUT a camera a few months back. It's near impossible to do (and still get a quality handset.)

The iphone's interface and power is it's selling point, there's no other reason to buy it. If you don't want the touch interface, the phone is not for you, period. This is not a phone for people who want to just call their friends, the same way a blackberry or treo isn't for them. I don't particularly want an iPhone, but I bet a few years down the line I'll have something very similar. iPhone version 3, or a knockoff, not sure which.

[OversighT]

That was a really long post that only made me realize that I still want an iPhone

Been with Cingular for almost 4 years now.
Love Apple design.
Couldn't care less if my phone has a camera in it.
Been wanting a video iPod anyway.
Did I mention I love Apple design?

T.

[laawaaris]

i can't wait ... everytime i see a new iPhone commercial i go absolutely crazy

an ipod that plays movies shows photos and surfs the web .... and wait, its also a phone!

sign me up!

[boxofrocks]

It's all about the market sector they want to target. It's not the heavy business PDA user, since there's not any outlook sync capability (a deal breaker to many). It's the fun loving gadget gurus with the cash to afford one. I doubt there are 10 million of them out there that are willing to spend that kind of cash, though.

[wadebarker]

The fact that it's AT&T/Cingular only and has no 3G break the deal for me alone. I won't give up Verizon or 3G EVDO to have it. Lack of ActiveSync/Exchange support is also a big negative to me and a lot of other people I would imagine even if that's not the primary target.